Monthly Archives: May 2017

Realistic US Energy Trends in 2017

The Trump Administration is beginning to have its imprint on energy policy. Yet, many potential moves may not be very effective given market forces, which certainly drives business. The University of Texas’s Energy Institute has issued an interactive map showing the cheapest energy sources and greatest availability throughout the US. http://calculators.energy.utexas.edu/lcoe_map/#/county/tech and http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/12/12/13914942/interactive-map-cheapest-power-plant

The Future of Coal is Not Favorable

Despite the President’s promise to bring back jobs to coal miners, the map’s information is pretty obvious that natural gas and renewables are likely to provide much of the U.S.’s new electric capacity in the foreseeable future. In addition, the map shows why the cost of building and operating new coal-fired plants is so high and non-competitive. This concurs with recent papers issued by the US Energy Information Administration.

Part of the problem for coal is geography. Prices to build wind farms have plummeted lately, and the Plains states, which have been high historic users of coal for power, are ideal location for wind plants (they have plenty of it). And in the South and Northeast, natural gas prices have dropped greatly, in part because of fracking and shale gas. Besides raw materials being cheaper, natural gas plants are more efficient than coal-fired plants. A modern gas-fired plant can convert 60% of the theoretical energy to electricity; for a modern coal plant, it is about 35%. Even if environmental regulations affecting coal are repealed, wind subsidies are eliminated, and gas prices spike, the cost of a new coal-fired power plant still cannot compete with wind or natural gas, and investors and builders will go with gas-fired and renewable power plants.

The Future of Nuclear Power is Murky

Despite its many detractors, nuclear power is growing in Europe and other parts of the world and, without a doubt, results in much lower greenhouse gas emissions than any fossil fuel-based plant. However, it is still expensive to build a new nuclear plant in the U.S., an estimated $8,000/kW, almost double that of other forms of electricity. There is research on advanced reactors with smaller, modular designs that in the future may be safer and less expensive than current mammoth reactors. The Trump Administration has signaled its approval of nuclear power, but has not suggested what it would be willing to do to help alleviate the cost differential.

Renewable Power

All signs indicate that the cost of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal) will continue to drop in the coming years. Renewable power has grown greatly worldwide, spurring a learning curve and a drop in costs due to greater efficiency and experience. Even if utilities and state governments reduce or end incentive programs for renewables, these will still rank in many parts of the country as the most cost effective power plants around. This will be especially true if and when large-scale battery power can be modernized both technically and financially to address the issue of inconsistent generation of power from renewables.

CCES can help you assess your future energy options to give you maximum operating flexibility and maximize your financial benefits. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

Be Careful Of What We Say In Environmental Communications

There has been a lot of talk and concern about the lack of scientific thought in many of the pronouncements of the Trump Administration. Scientific facts are discarded and simplistic non-truths are becoming the backbone of some decisions in the energy, environmental, and health areas. I don’t mean to play politics here, but this seems to be predominantly the doing of the “Tea Party” and other right-wing groups, trying to deny the validity of climate change and the importance of environmental stewardship, all in the name of “small” government or short-term economic and jobs growth.

As an engineer and citizen, I feel this is terrible. But, this has been well-covered, and I don’t wish to “pile on” here. I do want to note that this is not unique to the right wing of the US political spectrum. I have seen examples of scare tactics and lack of reasoning from the left wing environmental community, also. We need to be vigilant and hold all sides accountable. Everyone (right or left) is entitled to their opinions, but not their facts.

What brings this to mind is an environmental group local to where I live (which shall remain nameless) which puts out many misleading emails and articles, that a common situation is so untenable, that it will lead to public health or environmental disaster. The other thing they do is attack a certain facility or process, demanding it be shut down without discussing what would replace it.

I know the person who runs the organization. She’s smart and has quite a personal story. I have tremendous respect for her. But she has only superficial knowledge of environmental matters, and, again, feels that everything is a tragedy about to happen.

A few years ago, we both gave presentations at a local environmental event. I gave an overview for the general public about what climate change is and what scientists know about it. In explaining greenhouse gases, I stated the fact that GHGs are not in and of themselves toxic even at elevated concentrations, but cause the trapping of radiation to conserve energy from leaving into outer space. We have lived in balance with a certain GHG concentration in the atmosphere, but now are affecting it adversely. Afterwards, she took me aside and berated me for saying anything “positive” about GHGs. They were the bad guys, in her view, and needed to be seen as such. I challenged her to find any published article that states that GHGs have direct toxic effects and I’ll personally apologize to the event organizer and reach out to every attendee with a correction. She never did (of course). I told her the only way we can fight climate change effectively is for the public to fully understand the topic. It is not simple (“good guy” vs. “bad guy”) with a simple solution if only governments understood as she does.

Her organization is sponsoring a movie about zero waste and she put out an email about it and advocating the shutdown of our county’s waste-to-energy facility. It releases toxic compounds, she wrote, affecting all our health. We are in a dangerous area with high ozone and particulate levels. We must shut down the facility ASAP.

There are so many holes to her arguments. Zero waste is a great concept; I am for it. However, cities (San Francisco comes to mind) have had this as a formal goal and spent millions to research and implement and has failed. This is not something that will be achieved overnight. Even if the techniques and technologies are developed to do so, there is always the implementation by cities, counties, etc. and the willingness of the public to use them (many don’t like change or an added expense). As for the waste-to-energy facility, yes, it is certainly not emissions-free, but it operates under a Title V Permit which mandates compliance with several state and federal air quality rules specific for such facilities, developed with public health in mind. It has continuous emission monitors and does annual testing to ensure these emission standards are met.

The county that the facility is in (as well as where the movie is being shown) was recently moved from severe to moderate ozone non-attainment, and has not had an exceedance in nearly 3 years. Besides, it has been demonstrated that most of the ozone forerunners come from sources many miles upwind of our county. This facility is not the cause of the current ozone non-attainment, nor would shutting it down solve this. The county meets the particulate attainment standard (why did they say it does not?).

Finally, the statement from the group demands the immediate shut down of the facility. Fine. But what would one do with the garbage? The alternative is to truck it to a landfill, hundreds of miles away. Given the size of the facility, that would mean hundreds of trucks traveling this distance daily, combusting diesel fuel oil. The use of any fossil fuel is another frequent target of their attack. So they are indirectly promoting a solution they oppose. Conveniently not mentioned in the email! Not to mention this alternative would require many workers to be in contact with the waste, risking their health. And not to mention the methane gas and other pollutants potentially emitted from the landfill. Methane is 21 times more potent than the CO2 emitted from the waste-to-energy facility.

So, we in the environmental community also need to be careful what we say in our writings. That what we say and write is scientifically grounded, thorough, and accurate; is not wishful thinking nor simplistic; and that alternative scenarios are thought through.

I am curious your thoughts and experiences. Please let me know what you think of this.

CCES can help your company develop a science-based, effective environmental and energy program that can meet achievable goals and can help you communicate this with the public and with regulators. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com

HVAC Industry Prepares for New Energy Standards

The HVAC industry must prepare for major changes with new USDOE energy conservation standards for commercial air conditioners and heat pumps, (RTUs or rooftop units), scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2018.

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/12/f27/CUAC-CUHP%20CWAF%20Direct%20Final%20Rule.pdf

https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=35

https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=49&action=viewlive

The rooftop air conditioner standards — which will cover new units found on smaller buildings, such as hospitals, schools, and retailers — will take effect in two phases. Minimum efficiency will increase by about 10% as of Jan. 1, 2018, and by 25-30% as of Jan. 1, 2023. New standards for new warm-air furnaces become effective in 2023.

Based on USDOE estimates, the new rooftop air conditioner energy standard will save 1.7 trillion kWh over 30 years, which is expected to outpace any other standard completed by the agency, more than any other USDOE standard ever. The USDOE estimates that the new standards would net a typical building owner $4,200-$10,100 over the life of a single rooftop air conditioner. There does not appear to be any movement toward repealing or changing the standards by the new administration.

HVAC manufacturers must incorporate significant design changes in order to comply. Most affected manufacturers have not publicly stated any opposition to the new energy standards, as a major selling point of this equipment is energy efficiency. Of course, implementing new technologies and designs costs money, which will likely raise the cost of new units, but potentially in small increments given the competitive situation.

Another industry likely to benefit from the upcoming standards are utilities. RTUs particularly use a lot of electricity on hot summer days when overall electric demand is at its peak and a concern of utilities to deliver reliable power to everyone. More efficient units gradually being purchased and installed may stem the tide of annual increases in electric demand and make managing a large grid system a little easier.

And this rule may well benefit the consumer. Given the overall financial benefit of operating a more efficient unit, it may be advantageous to wait until 2018 to purchase additional units. Or those on short budgets may want to maximize purchases in 2017, saving capital now for longer term costs in future years.

CCES has the experts to assess your HVAC equipment to determine more efficient units and controls to minimize electric usage and peak demand and maximize financial benefits. Contact us today at karell@CCESworld.com or at 914-584-6720.