Usually around this time, I do some research for a blog article I write most Decembers summarizing the year and forecasting where energy and environmental items may go in the future. In November, a very well-written article came out in the NY Times that essentially did the job for me. Here is a link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/climate/global-energy-forecast.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
Despite the US government being antagonistic to renewable power and trying to favor traditional “dirty” fuels, such as coal, the world’s markets have spoken and clean energy is competitive with traditional power plants worldwide. Coal is declining in its biggest user country, China, and in the US, too, despite government efforts to the contrary. Over the past 5 years, the average cost of solar power has declined 65% and onshore wind by 15%, with further declines predicted in the future. For many locations and situations, it is now cheaper to build and operate a solar or wind farm than a fossil fuel-driven power plant.
But there is a problem: The International Energy Agency recently published its annual World Energy Outlook (https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2018) which has forecast that despite robust growth of clean energy, it will not meet the GHG emission reduction goals scientists developed to reduce the grave physical threats of climate change. While the agency predicts that by 2040 renewable power will supply 40% of the world’s electricity and China will be close to abandoning coal combustion, the decrease in GHG emissions will not be sufficient to prevent the temperature rise that is likely to result in great damage. Many coal and oil-fired power plants are fairly young and not likely to be replaced by solar until the utilities have gotten their share of the investment.
Similarly, GHG emissions from the transportation sector is predicted to peak in the mid-2020’s as countries strengthen fuel-economy standards and electric vehicles become more acceptable. However, oil use, a large GHG emitter, will still be high as it will continue to be used for space heating and manufacturing plastics and other chemicals.
However, with all these projected gains, the report predicts that GHG emissions will not decline, but continue to rise slowly until 2040. Projected population and economic growth will simply mean more vehicles on the road, plastics in use, etc.
The paper indicates that governments will need to play a key role to bring down GHG emissions. The report notes that the world invests $2 trillion annually in energy infrastructure. Incentives to develop and/or implement clean energy in place of coal and oil will need to expand beyond this to prevent catastrophic effects of climate change.
CCES has the expertise to help your firm or entity evaluate ways to benefit from converting to clean, renewable energy and energy efficiency to improve your climate change or sustainability program and bring many financial benefits. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.